Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 3.273415 3.926777 4.656238 5.528034 6.538422 7.669316 9.027486
2025-04-13 2.164432 2.983763 4.009326 5.373390 7.124308 9.279103 12.111993
2025-04-20 1.690085 2.620105 3.899944 5.755352 8.335150 11.748134 16.547792
2025-04-27 1.315080 2.266448 3.690490 5.914787 9.223795 13.871653 20.775809
2025-05-04 1.069865 2.027549 3.571571 6.143951 10.196528 16.179954 25.476498
2025-05-11 0.847260 1.760403 3.340805 6.137744 10.782712 17.957852 29.563139
2025-05-18 0.649272 1.479634 3.021293 5.914655 10.968200 19.114148 32.792107
2025-05-25 0.491124 1.228169 2.695118 5.610089 10.953102 19.919158 35.509755
2025-06-01 0.395598 1.077359 2.522424 5.543642 11.320778 21.359063 39.345298
2025-06-08 0.320129 0.948356 2.364044 5.471529 11.656084 22.758017 43.210219
2025-06-15 0.288070 0.914369 2.397485 5.782117 12.734371 25.536340 49.634237
2025-06-22 0.242780 0.832321 2.306865 5.817494 13.277970 27.394392 54.580736
2025-06-29 0.201445 0.749794 2.202619 5.817100 13.771277 29.244136 59.738907
2025-07-06 0.165971 0.672256 2.094291 5.791254 14.212681 31.044493 64.970969
2025-07-13 0.156147 0.672979 2.187432 6.250747 15.736228 35.060051 74.626631
2025-07-20 0.137078 0.635662 2.170537 6.441032 16.693144 38.036080 82.519506
2025-07-27 0.122620 0.609436 2.178867 6.694771 17.817840 41.435145 91.456565
2025-08-03 0.102983 0.555149 2.092792 6.690569 18.349370 43.659555 98.239581
2025-08-10 0.081298 0.481746 1.929482 6.450922 18.295788 44.652061 102.629218
2025-08-17 0.062244 0.408899 1.747054 6.122691 17.982110 45.053258 105.833394
2025-08-24 0.051195 0.367744 1.659832 6.051093 18.294229 46.836313 112.003135
2025-08-31 0.041998 0.330469 1.575808 5.973305 18.579165 48.577040 118.191821
2025-09-07 0.039276 0.328321 1.622759 6.308436 19.982526 52.952945 130.263414